There are many simulationA model of a system on a computer that includes events that represent the progress of the system towards the final state. At each event choices are made and forthcoming events are registered. The model can deal with uncertainty by triggering events according to random distributions. By running the model for long enough (or enough times) the average results from the model will provide a forecast of 'typical' behaviour. Simulations are used to deal with both uncertainty and complexity. tools available that provide a prediction in cases where it is difficult or impossible to produce a mathematical model. Often these tools cover situations where there is uncertainty in outcomes which is dealt with by sampling from random distributions. By running the model for a sufficiently long simulated time the performance of the system can be predicted. These simulations are 'event based' with each event being assigned a time when it should occur. The simulation advances chronologically from event to event, with new events being created during the processing of existing events. The outcome of events, and / or the time for the next event are determined in part by random distributions. There are simulation tools available for a many fields including manufacturing, reliability, oil fields, and transport.
A type of optimisation can be carried out by an expert using a 'What If' simulation tool. Trial decisions are made and the simulation model is run, followed by running a cost function to provide a measure of the quality of the outcome. By recording and analysing outcomes the expert can try different decision sets and at least identify a reasonably favourable decision set. It cannot be expected that the expert will find the optimum decision in most cases because running the models takes an appreciable time.
If decisions are made on a regular basis it may be possible to set up an 'expert system' to automate the process of diagnosing trial results and finding new (better) decision sets.
Optimal Solutions 4U has considerable experience of developing event based simulations, both directly as programs and using available simulation tools. We would be pleased to offer consultancy on this, or any other aspect of Optimisation. You can get in touch by sending a message from our Contact Us page, or by calling us on the number below.